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Блог пользователя Chessplayer

Дайджест валютного рынка

Рыночные идеи, события, аналитика
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Chessplayer 29.03.2012, 00:41

LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 25 марта 2012 г.

LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 25 марта 2012 г.

Это ДАЙДЖЕСТ ссылок на аналитические материалы, главным образом англоязычные.

теперь англоязычные

JPMORGAN: 5 Reasons To Stay BullishJPM о пяти причинах, чтобы оставаться быками

Things That Make You Go Hmmm... Such As A "Fiscally Credible" UK And Its Upcoming 100 Year Gilts

Обсуждается идея британского министра финансов выпустить 100-летние бонды

(UK Daily Telegraph): Britain is to offer 100-year gilts, meaning current Government borrowing will not be repaid until the next century, ...

The Chancellor hopes that the 100-year gilts will help to “lock in” the benefits of Britain’s international “safe haven” status. The interest rates paid by the Government to borrow money have recently fallen to a record low and it is hoped the new gilts will mean “our great-grandchildren” can benefit from the low rates.

Currently, the average duration of the Government’s £1 trillion debt is around 14 years – with maturities ranging from months to a 50-year bond issued in 2005. Longer-dated debt is widely thought to offer a country more stability.

A Treasury source said tonight: “This is about locking in for the future the tangible benefits of the safe haven status we have today. The prize is lower debt interest repayments for decades to come.

“It is a chance for our great-grandchildren to pay less than they otherwise would have done because of the government’s fiscal credibility.”

Национальной ассоциации пенсионных фондов не нравится эта идея

(FT): The National Association of Pension Funds on Wednesday criticised the chancellor’s plans for an “Osborne bond” – a 100-year debt issue or even a perpetual gilt that never matures – saying it would prefer shorter maturity debt that was protected against inflation.

One senior UK fund manager said: “This could be of interest for pension funds as it would be a good match for their liabilities.” But another said: “We would not be buyers of this debt because the yields are too low. It would be great for the government and the British taxpayer, but I don’t think we would want to lock in yields so low for such a long time. Yields are artificially low because of the Bank of England’s quantitative easing initiative.”

Инфляция съест эти инвестиции

From the Government’s point of view it was a masterstroke which transformed the public finances, but it was a disaster for investors. The new stock immediately plunged in value, yet the real damage was to come later from the value destructive effects of

inflation. £1,000 invested in the War Loan back then would in today’s money be worth less than £20.

Previewing Next Week's Events

Goldman представляет события следующей недели

In terms of US activity data, the focus will be on the Chicago PMI, Durable Goods and Personal Income. Though we do expect a technical rebound in the durable good orders after the weakness in the previous report, we think the Chicago PMI could slip by more (to 60 from 64) than consensus expects. Overall, the message from US activity data may therefore remain mixed outside the still-strong labour market data.

In terms of Asian activity data, the end of the week will be important. The official China PMI for March will be interesting after the weakness in the Flash PMI. Korean trade is the first non-survey based activity indicator published globally that is published for the previous month. Both are due next Sunday.

по поводу валютного рынка

In terms of FX markets, we will remain quite focused on the Yen, partly because of our recommendation and partly because of the fiscal year-end in Japan and related possible last-minute volatility. The IP number for February could be important as the main data release for Japan in the upcoming week. Given the focus on rate differentials for $/JPY, but also more broadly for the Dollar, three speeches by Chairman Bernanke on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday could be relevant. The upcoming week is very heavy on Fed speeches with at least one scheduled every day.

The First Crack: $270 Billion In Student Loans Are At Least 30 Days Delinquent

270 млрд. долларов в студенческих займах имеют задержку в погашениях более 30 дней.

Yet one bubble which the Federal Government managed to blow in the meantime to staggering proportions in virtually no time, for no other reason than to give the impression of consumer releveraging, was the student debt bubble, which at last check just surpassed $1 trillion, and is growing at $40-50 billion each month. However, just like subprime, the first cracks have now appeared. In a report set to convince borrowers that Student Loan ABS are still safe - of course they are - they are backed by all taxpayers after all in the form of the Family Federal Education Program - Fitch discloses something rather troubling, namely that of the $1 trillion + in student debt outstanding, "as many as 27% of all student loan borrowers are more than 30 days past due." In other words at least $270 billion in student loans are no longer current (extrapolating the delinquency rate into the total loans outstanding). That this is happening with interest rates at record lows is quite stunning and a loud wake up call that it is not rates that determine affordability and sustainability: it is general economic conditions, deplorable as they may be, which have made the popping of the student loan bubble inevitable.

The Fed Is Losing The "Race To Debase"

В гонке по девальвации валют (баланс/ВВП) Фед неожиданно оказался на последнем месте. На первом месте теперь ЕЦБ, который опережает даже BOJ

As the following chart from Willem Buiter shows, in its fake attempt to show monetary restraint, the Fed has gone straight into last place in the "race to debase." Needless to say, in a world with $25+trillion in "excess" debt (debt which would need to be eliminated simply to reduce global debt/GDP to a "sustainable" 180% per BCG), last is a very bad place to be...

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Chessplayer 26.03.2012, 13:28

LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 23 марта 2012 г.

LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 23 марта 2012 г.

LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ, El-Erian, Doug Kass, ECB bonds buying, assets/GDP, interest payments/GDP, government debt/revenue, home sales, Tchir, SNB

Драги: грекам нужны реформы

Доходность бондов Греции за день взлетела выше 20%

Британский ЦБ: время срочно запасаться капиталом

Розничные продажи в Италии начали расти

Бизнес во Франции постепенно оживает

Приток капитала на фондовый рынок РФ продолжается

Испания сэкономит еще 35 млрд евро в 2012-13 гг.

Deutsche Bank: финансы Европы по уши в кризисе

ФРС пресечет попытки обойти требования к капиталу

Разногласия в ФРС нарастают

Кто выиграет от замедления Китая

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теперь англоязычные

EL-ERIAN: The Economy Is Improving, But It Isn't Ready For The Fiscal Cliff

Структурные проблемы предстоит еще решать, а экономике восстанавливаться после приема «чрезвычайных медицинских средств».

In his latest note published in Project Syndicate, El-Erian says there are structural problems that need to be addressed. He cautions against complacency and says the economy needs to recover from the "extreme medicine it received" i.e. fiscal stimulus and other policies enacted by the Fed:

DOUG KASS: Goldman's Big Bullish Bet Is Just Plain Wrong

Doug Kass считает, что призыв покупать акции со стороны GS свидетельствует о том, что рынок достиг локального максимума.

Earlier this week, Goldman portfolio strategists Peter Oppenheimer and Matthieu Walterspiler wrote that "the prospects for future returns in equities relative to bonds are as good as they have been in a generation," in a long-term bullish call that shocked even some of the most optimistic investors.

But legendary value investor Doug Kass isn't having any of it. He goes so far as to exclaim, "I can't help but think that Goldman Sachs might have rung the bell that the market has topped in the near term!" in an editorial published by The Street today.

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Is The ECB BTP Buying Spree Back?

Кажется, что ЕЦБ возобновил покупки BTP (итальянские долговые бумаги)

Не с этим ли связан рост EURO ?

3 Charts On Why Eurosis Never Really Went Away

Три графика, которые показывают, что еврокризис никогда не закончится

If ever there were banks that were truly Too-Big-Too-Fail, Europe has them - is it any wonder the Greek Bailout was so focused on rescuing the bank balance sheets. Swiss banks dominate the worst end of the spectrum along with Dutch banks (huge covered bond markets) but the French, Spanish, and Belgian banks are all around two times their nations GDP! Of course this assumes the asset values are 'correctly priced' and not some non-MtM dream and while they are deleveraging (which itself causes aggregate credit supply issues for the real economy and overhangs for the financial economy), LTRO has done nothing but slow the efforts in a false-sense-of-security way. We could add a bonus chart here on European bank reliance of ECB funding - that shows Italy and Spain nearing Portugal's level of aggregate reliance - not exactly a resounding success.

Отношение процентных платежей к производственным доходам экономики быстро растет.

Perhaps the cleanest measure of 'stress' or service-ability for the currency-using sovereigns shows that the amount European sovereigns pay in interest relative to their productive gains as an economy is rising rapidly and forecast to rise even faster. This will obviously get worse as the recession deepens from both rising costs (as post-LTRO rate normalize) and lower GDP (as austerity and balance sheet recession impacts come home to roost).

Левередж находится на 20-летних максимумах.

The 'leverage' of the Euro-Area has never been higher. Across every nation, we are at over 20 year highs in terms of this measure of leverage. To impact this via the fiscal compact by raising taxes and deleveraging at the aggregate level can only exaggerate the recessionary pressure Europeans will feel.

While yields have indeed dropped, the reflexive response that ergo - Europe is fixed - is simply nonsense as nothing has changed and in fact the concentration and contagion stress is worse than it ever was. This time may be different as this time, the ECB is really in a box to fix the next risk flare without outright money-printing and Zee Germans vill not like zat!

Eurosis Is Back As "New" Greek Bonds Break 20%, Slide 14% In 2 Days

Новые греческие бонды драматически упали за последние два дня.

Well that didn't take long. New Greek bonds (GGB2) have dropped dramatically in the last 2 days. The 2023 bond has fallen from over EUR29.5 on Wednesday to under EUR25.5 this morning, prices have dropped an incredible 14% and down a painful 17.5% from its opening break highs of just 2 weeks ago. Yields have broken back above 20% for the first time for this new 10Y as it appears reality is sinking in that Greek Bailout III will come sooner rather than later. Eurosis is back.

Spanish Bond Yields - Who's A "Natural" Buyer Of The 10 Year

Peter Tchir

Кто покупает 10-летние испанские бумаги?

So the reality is, the only banks that might buy long dated Spanish bonds are Spanish banks, and they are already pretty full of Spanish debt and even they much prefer to buy the short end. In theory, that special little subset of Spanish banks, the Caja’s, might do as they are told, but since they are already on life support, that is hardly a deep pocket investor.

Испанские банки и другие финансовые организации, и они уже под завязку загрузились испанским долгом

Banks always tended to buy 5 year and in. 10 year bond never fit banks as well as shorter dated bonds, so they were never the core buyer of this part of the curve. This desire to be in shorter maturities has been accentuated by the LTRO. LTRO encourages banks to buy 3 year and in paper for 2 reasons – i) no funding mismatch at maturity of LTRO, and ii) since LTRO is collateralized, far less risk of having to post variation margin on short duration bonds (at least until the whole curve inverts). So banks across the board have many incentives to participate in the short end which was their natural tendency to begin with. So banks as a whole do not like the long end, and foreign banks will dislike it even more. It is very hard for a non-Spanish bank to justify long term positions in Spain. There is $100 billion of debt in the Spanish system where banks issued bonds to themselves, got it guaranteed by Spain, and are using those bonds to get central bank money. As a non-Spanish bank, you have to look at that cozy relationship and be nervous. If, and when, the Spanish financials deteriorate, it is hard to expect fair treatment as a foreign bank when it is so clear that Spanish banks and the government have become very interconnected.

Иностранцам покупать долгосрочный долг Испании очень рискованно.

Officials can talk about the low debt to GDP in Spain, but professional investors have to look at all the contingent and hidden debt. Spain has implicitly and explicitly guaranteed the municipal debt. The Spanish government is in up to its eyeballs in helping the Caja’s. They have participated in the LTRO ponzi bond scheme even more than Italy has on a relative basis. These contingent liabilities will make insurance companies more reluctant, but that would still be part of the “fundamental” analysis.

There are relatively few natural buyers of Spanish long dated bonds here. Fast money is likely caught long, and it will take a potentially reluctant ECB and some already overly exposed Spanish institutions to step up and stop the slide. It may happen, but many of the policies that “bailed out” Greece created very bad precedents for bondholders, and some of those are coming home to roost, as is the understanding that LTRO ensures that banks can access liquidity, but does nothing to fix any problem at the sovereign level.

Guest Post: About That $20 Trillion In Public Debt...

За 3 последних года публичный долг США был увеличен на 20 трлн. долларов и нет никакого быстрого роста ВВП.

In only three more years you're talking $20 trillion in public debt for the USA and a GDP going nowhere fast. Add to this that demographics are not encouraging and taxes of all sorts will have to rise. Cuts will be symbolic because the political pain will be unbearable. Without productive new investment, then debt service soon outstrips income growth and the economy enters a death spiral of declining productive investment, ever expanding debt and ever higher debt service costs.

Как он будет обслуживаться в быстроменяющейся экономической обстановке?

Please Highlight The Housing Recovery On The Following Chart

Восстановление американского рынка недвижимости очень наглядно

Продажи домов на одну семью на абсолютном минимуме.

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SNB Quarterly Bulletin Released

Опубликован Бюллетень Центрального Банка Швейцарии

We would like to note, there is a slightly optimistic tone in the report. As risks have remained marginally unchanged, the bulletin notes improvements in the financial markets and mixed developments on the global growth front. While the SNB still views the overvalued CHF as a "challenge to the economy", they mentioned "growing indications that Switzerland's economy is stabilizing." The SNB goes on to state that the minimum exchange rate has reduced volatility and allowed businesses to plan with greater certainty. "For 2012, the forecast shows an inflation rate of -0.6%. For 2013, the SNB is expecting inflation of 0.3% and for 2014, of 0.6%". While the 2012 inflation path was adjusted downwards, from Dec 2011 forecast, it still represents a trough. Heading progressively higher in Q2 2012 saying "SNB expects the CPI to move over the next three years". Interestingly, the SNB forecast assumptions are based on Brent at $110 and EURUSD at 1.29. It's looking highly unlikely that a shift in the minimal exchange rate is coming anytime soon, but this report will clearly reignite debates on the likely timing of the exit. We are currently seeing CHF appreciation against both the USD and EUR.

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BOE Weale: Sees Positive, Better-Than-Expected Q1 GrowthЧлен MPC при банке Англии считает, что повышение ставки BOE произойдет раньше, чем многие этого ожидают.

The MPC member, who voted against further quantitative easing at

the March meeting and has warned that a rate hike could come sooner than

markets have been pricing in, said that the quarterly growth pattern

would be choppy this year, with the Queen’s Jubilee and the Olympics

clouding the picture. After contracting in the fourth quarter of 2011

the economy, however, appears on track to avoid a technical recession.

A little something for the finance ministers

На следующей неделе будет обсуждаться будущее фондов EFSF и ESM

The European Commission has published a short paper outlining three options for the eurozone rescue programme, ahead of eurozone and EU finance ministers’ meetings next week.

But... Germany wants to avoid anything that requires parliamentary approval and is extremely unlikely to go with this to the Bundestag.

Which leaves option 2, in which the two funds run concurrently until mid-2013, which would make €740bn available — but only until next year. That, the EC says, might be enough to persuade the G20 etc.

The Yen's Looming Day of Reckoning

Большая статья про японскую экономику

Соединение слабой экономики и сильной валюты – это очень странная вещь.

The combination of a weak economy and strong currency are always suspect. But it has lasted for so long that even foreigners take it for granted. I think this is some sort of mass hysteria. Most people only remember a strong yen. On the other hand, most people haven't seen rising property or stock markets either.

Сильная йена – это психологический феномен.

Japanese culture is group-oriented. Individuals usually embrace group activities. This psyche was the reason that Japan's property bubble became so big in the 1980s. In terms of value above the normal level, Japan's bubble was five to six times the size of the bubble in the United States. After the property bubble, the group psyche shifted its power to a strong yen, pushing Japan's economy onto the path of a rising yen, deflation and rising government debt.

Japan's paralyzed political system is the reason the government has accommodated the deflation path by running up national debt. The Japanese people, on the other hand, buy the debt because deflation makes property or stocks bad investments and a strong yen discourages them from buying foreign assets and deflation.

Despite the fact Japan has had a bad economy for so long, the yen has remained strong. It reinforces the Japanese psyche on the issue. The strong yen has become a cult.

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Chessplayer 13.03.2012, 12:21

LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 12 марта 2012 г.

LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 12 марта 2012 г.

Китай продолжит инвестировать в европейские бонды

Китай готов помогать и Японии

Китай все еще верит в еврозону

Банки подсчитали потери из-за Греции

Венизелос идет на повышение

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теперь англоязычные

Summary Of Key Events In The Coming Week

События недели от Goldman Sachs

Tue 13th March

FOMC Meeting: We expect no change, in line with consensus.

BoJ Meeting: The BOJ took the market by surprise at its February MPM by (1) increasing its Asset Purchase Program budget by 10 trillion yen and (2) citing a 1% CPI inflation goal “for the time being”. Political pressure has not abated since the February MPM. At this week's MPM we expect the BOJ to extend its Fund Provisioning to Strengthen the Foundations for Economic Growth, since this is due to expire at the end of March. We also think reference will be made to the pace of upcoming asset purchases.

Вот почему USD/JPY растет! Ждут продолжения интервенций. С трудом верится, что второй месяц подряд.

ECB Draghi Speech

Ecofin Meeting

Ниже идут прогнозы по некоторым экономическим данным. Интересно будет проследить за тем, как они сбудутся.

Wed 14 March

Euro area CPI (Feb): Consensus expects a slight increase to February inflation, 2.7% from 2.6% yoy.

Euro area IP (Jan): Consensus expects further contraction of -0.8%, compared with last month’s -2.0% yoy.

United States CA (Q4): We expect a slight widening of the current account deficit on the back of larger than expected trade deficits in Q4. GS: -$119 bn, consensus expects -$114.2 bn, widening from -$110.3 bn.

Fed’s Benanke Speech Thu 15 March

US Producer Prices (Feb): Producer prices probably received a headline boost in February. GS: +0.37, at 0.5% mom, consensus is up from the previous value +0.1% mom.

US TIC Data (Jan): As always, we will look at the quality of capital inflows into the US. TIC portfolio inflows have recently been geared towards inflows into US treasuries, while US investors tend to be pretty systematic buyers of foreign stocks and bonds. Last +$17.9 bn.

Fri 16 March

US Consumer Prices (Feb): Consumer prices probably received a headline boost in February, while we expect a moderation in core inflation measures. GS: +0.45%, consensus expects 0.4% mom, slightly up from 0.2%.

US IP (Feb): We expect industrial production to benefit from strong gains in vehicle output. GS: +0.6% mom, consensus expects 0.4%, up from 0.0% last month.

Market Shorts At 4 Year Lows, In Hibernation For Second Straight Month

Шорты на 4-хлетгнем минимуме. В зимней спячке второй месяц подряд.

Is Bond Market Whispering Inflation As 3 Year TSY Prices At Highest Yield Since October?

The jump in yield from 0.347% to 0.456% may not sound like much, but that is what just happened following the pricing of the latest $32 billion in 3 Year paper, which came at the highest rate since October's 0.544%. And considering that anything under 3 years is virtually risk free courtesy of ZIRP, this move is actually far more pronounced than it appears on the surface.

Bank of Japan Preview: No Need for a Surprise This Time

Danske Bank о завтрашнем заседании Банка Японии

We do not expect additional QE in the coming months

We do not expect BoJ to announce any additional QE in connection with this week's monetary meeting.

Going forward the most important question will be BoJ's commitment to its new inflation target. The suspicion remains that the easing move on 13 February was mainly driven by external political pressure and less by real conviction by the BoJ board members of the need for a more aggressive monetary stance. For that reason the release of the minutes from the 13 February monetary meeting on 16 March could prove to be more interesting than tomorrow's statement.

With GDP growth poised to rebound in Q1 (possibly above 3% q/q AR), we do not expect BoJ to announce additional QE in the coming months unless JPY for some reason resumes appreciating. The purpose of Japan's FX intervention policy remains solely to stem the appreciation of JPY. Because Japan's intervention policy has been criticized by both the US and the EU, we do not expect to see renewed intervention unless USD/JPY revisits earlier lows below 76. Overall Japan's policy of attempting to “draw a line in the sand” on a stronger JPY has gained credibility. The market increasingly understands that a substantial appreciation will be met by more aggressive monetary easing and possibly even renewed intervention in the FX market.

In our view the ceiling for asset purchases could be raised further in H2 12 to make room for continued asset purchases in 2013.

FOMC Preview: Better Jobs Data Not Enough to Turn the Fed

Danske Bank также не ожидает каких-либо действий от Федрезерва

Following the positive employment report for February, we believe that the FOMC will take a wait-and-see approach at its monetary policy meeting tomorrow. The recent improvement in the labour market does in our view rule out the announcement of new easing measures. However, the door for further easing will be kept open, given Bernanke's wondering over the apparent decoupling of growth and jobs data. Hence, we need more solid economic data before the Fed will make any material changes to its economic projections.

Danske Bank оценивает шансы на новый раунд QE в этом году только в 25%.

We are relatively upbeat on the US economic outlook for the coming six months and we believe that the chance of another round of Fed easing this year is only around 25%.

LTRO names n’ numbers, revisited

Кто и сколько брал денег у ЕЦБ

Banks that found themselves with above 10% of funded assets in public sector money have often either been nationalised or, like Lloyds and Bank of Ireland, have undertaken massive equity issuance in order to change their balance sheet sufficiently to make a full return to the private sector.

As US Rakes Largest Monthly Deficit In History, 2012 Tax Revenues Net Of Refunds Trail 2011

How Many Days Will It Take To Sell $10 Million Of...

О рыночной ликвидности

It will come as no surprise to any reader that volumes in general are dismal. This leads inevitably to the question of just how liquid markets are in general. This may not be a critical question for mom-and-pop buying some IBM or CAT at the margin but for institutional investors it is critical to the decision to enter a position. Pairing off reward expectations with risk concerns tends to focus too much on volatility and too little on liquidity and by looking at daily market turnover and the bid-offer spread of each asset class, UBS finds taking liquidity into account can make a huge difference to performance (and risk-appetite). Unsurprisingly, the most liquid assets are large cap equities and US Treasuries. The least liquid assets include various fixed income securities, and in particular high yield credit. Perhaps this goes a long way to explaining why US Treasuries have maintained their strength and why large cap equities have been so strong relative to credit markets (a topic we have discussed at length) as money finds its 'easiest' hole to fill and thanks to liquidity concerns, high yield credit investors remain more pragmatic entrants to an ever-inflating bubble of liquidity (as exits will be small and crowded at the first sign of tightening). We suspect the increasing dispersion between the most and least liquid securities in each asset class will likely feed on itself as fewer funds are willing to 'earn' an 'illiquidity' premium given the bigger binary risks facing all markets.

Daily FX Trading Activity: $4.7 Trillion

Дневной объем торгов на Форексе составляет 4,7 трлн. Долларов

OIL, CHINA, LIES, BIKE LANES: Jim Rogers Tells All To Business Insider

Большое интервью легендарного инвестора Джима Роджерса

Get Ready To Be Disappointed With 'Sterilized' QE3

Будьте готовы разочароваться в QE3 sterilized

Citi On The Really Simple Currency Trade That's Been Doing Awesome All Year

Маленькие валюты крушат большие. Корзина из 20-ти перечисленных ниже валют (G20) превосходит по всем статьям большую четверку (USD, GBP, EURO, JPY)/

The "small" currencies are crushing the bigs.

Specifically, basket consisting of The Aussie dollar, Canadian Dollar, South African Rand, Norwegian Kroner, Swedish Kroner, New Zealand Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Taiwanese Dollar, Colombian Peso, Indian Rupee, Indonesian Rupiah, Russian Ruble, Turkish Lira, Argentine Peso, Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso, Chinese Yuan, and the Malaysian Ringgit has clobbered a basket of the bigs: The Dollar, the British Pound, the Euro, and the yen.

G20 smalls outperform the G4

Разве это не результат печатания денег?

Goldman's Top Strategist Gives 3 Reasons Why The S&P 500 Will Fall To 1,250

Главный экономист Дэвид Костин по рынку акций GS видит S&P500 на 1250 пунктах к концу году.

The S&P 500 closed at about 1,370 at the end of last week, exceeding David Kostin's target of 1,250 for the end of 2012. Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg TV that he is sticking by his forecast despite the S&P's recent run.

Костин называет три причины:

Kostin said there were three main reasons for his call:

  1. The U.S. economy is stagnating, growing below trend.
  2. In a weak economic growth environment, markets historically have a flat multiple
  3. 2012 is expected to see earnings growth of only 3 percent.

Вопрос в том, не окажется ли S&P500 сперва на 1500, а потом уже на 1250 ?

Так или иначе косвенно такой прогноз свидетельствует о том, что Костин не ожидает QE3 до конца года?!

EVANS-PRITCHARD: Global Money Supply Growth Has Peaked--Which Means We're Screwed

Глобальное денежное обращение достигло пика...

The brilliant-if-generally-gloomy Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of The Telegraph argues that a falloff in the growth rate of the global money supply means that we're headed for an economic slowdown.

The Likely Next French President Reveals Why He Wants To Renegotiate Europe's Fiscal Pact

Почему вероятный новый президент Франции желает пересмотреть бюджетный договор.

JIM O'NEILL: Don't Worry About Friday's 'Not Quite So Good' US Trade Report

Джим О’Нейл: Не волнуйтесь. Последний отчет NFP вовсе не так хорош.

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